Signals to watch for in 2023
Whilst there are a mix of signals from competing asset classes, we are looking into 2023 for clues to become more positive.
A key indicator will be a trough in economic momentum in the US. With interest rates rising so quickly in the past year, the housing market has felt the effect and is already slowing. If this troughs in 2023, for us that will be a key indicator for a more positive economic climate.
But for now the slowing economy and falling inflation should continue to be reflected in lower bond yields (and higher bond prices), and emerging markets are set to benefit from China reopening both economically and politically.
Rates and relations
Equity markets appear tied to the path of US interest rates. Will the Federal Reserve continue to raise rates even as inflation appears to be peaking and the economy slows?
China is setting the pace in easing policy and reopening its economy, both internally and to the outside world. The non-economic changes around the ending of the crackdown on technology and improving foreign relations are likely to improve sentiment towards the region.
All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of Artorius at 20th January 2023 and are subject to change, without notice. Information has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing report is accurate or complete; we do not accept any liability for any errors or omissions, nor for any actions taken based on its content. The value of an investment and the income from it could go down as well as up. The return at the end of the investment period is not guaranteed and you may get back less than you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Nothing in this document is intended to be, or should be construed as, regulated advice. Artorius provides this document in good faith and for information purposes only. Reliance should not be placed on the information contained within this document when taking individual investments or strategic decisions. Artorius Wealth Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Artorius is a trading name of Artorius Wealth Management Limited.